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Home My WebLink AboutZMA202000006 Study Zoning Map Amendment 2020-04-13COLLINS April 13, 2020 Adam Moore Virginia Department of Transportation Charlottesville, VA 22902 800 E JEFFERSON CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902 434 293 3719 434 293 3719 www.collins—engineering.com RE: Spring Hill Village— Avon Street Extended Turn Lane Analysis The following is an analysis of the existing traffic conditions on Avon Street and a left turn warrant analysis for the proposed Spring Hill Development along Avon Street Extended (State Route 742). The VDOT 2018 traffic counts for this portion of Avon Street Extended between Route 20 and Avon Court is 12,000 VPD, as shown in the exhibit below: rrrxMA nCM ... �smse "' HIII d� x¢vwrm r i VWTAMCOIAJTS 12.=Wo RO.A YLENGTJM91. �0 NTE SECTIMA �ru OMTE0.9E nT 8 r' ( 1 INTER WE ON �LR Tj IT LOCr1 t-/ �"J mP' Fp cMW1�r n.n In 2007, a Traffic study for the proposed Biscuit Run Development was performed, which provided an in depth analysis of many of the intersections along Avon Street Extended. And, in 2014 with the Avinity Estates project, another Traffic Study was performed on some of the same intersections. Attached is a portion of these (2) traffic studies which illustrate the 2016 Full Build -out of Avinity Estates, and the 2021 traffic analysis existing conditions for Biscuit Run (with none of the projected Biscuit Run development traffic). The interesting thing between these (2) studies is that both studies are within a 2% to 3% of being identical to the proposed/existing traffic conditions along the roadway at certain locations. In addition, these projections from the traffic analysis are similar to the current VDOT 2018 traffic counts along this corridor. The analysis shown below is located at the existing Mill Creek intersection (intersection A) on the above map, which compares the modeling from the VDOT traffic counts verses the Biscuit Run TIA and the Avinity Estates TIA analysis. Mill Creek Intersection: • VDOT 2018 Traffic Counts (AA WDT) = 12,000 VPD K Factor= 0.098 (VPH= 1,176) Directional Factor = 0.607 (714 VPH) • Biscuit Run TIA (at Mill Creek Drive — North of Intersection) Traffic Counts: 1,452 VPH (Peak AM with 962 VPH heading North) 1,343 VPH (Peak PM with 829 VPH heading South) • Avinity Estates TIA (at Mill Creek Drive —North of Intersection) Traffic Counts: 1,185 VPH (Peak AM with 774 VPH heading North) 1,166 VPH (Peak PM with 742 VPH heading South) Based on these figures above, the Avinity Estates TIA analysis is very similar to the VDOT traffic Counts from 2018. The Biscuit Run is a conservative analysis, with estimates of the VPH about 20%-25% higher than the current VDOT 2018 traffic counts. Using the 2021 Biscuit Run Analysis modeled along the intersections, you can see the traffic patterns along this portion of Avon Street Extended. While VDOT just models the total vehicles along this portion of the road, the Biscuit Run and Avinity Estate TIA analysis looks at how the vehicles are distributed along the corridor. From the (2) reports, you can see that traffic splits at the Mill Creek Intersection. In both reports, about 40%-45% of the VPH in the Peak PM turn left at Mill Creek Drive (Intersection A). This movement substantially reduces the Peak PM traffic on Avon Street Extended South of Mill Creek Drive, indicating that the 2018 VDOT traffic counts is modelling the ADT north of this intersection. In addition, the 2018 VDOT traffic counts indicate 2600 VPD on Mill Creek Drive between Avon Street Extended and Route 20. This equates to roughly 260 VPH during the Peak AM and Peak PM traffic periods, which again corresponds to the Avinity Estates Traffic analysis, indicating that roughly 40% of the traffic comes from Mill Creek Drive in the AM heading North and 40% of the traffic turns left at the intersection in the PM heading south. Both the Biscuit Run TIA and the Avinity Estates TIA indicate that there are about 500 VPD in the Peak PM just past the Avinity Drive intersection (Intersection B). The Peak PM trips per day then decrease again past the Reynovia Drive and Stony Creek Drive intersections (Intersection Q. The Peak PM VPH decreases to roughly 348 VPH along this strength of the roadway. Both models also show the opposing Peak PM VPH at roughly 240 VPH at the Avinity Drive intersection and about 100 VPH south of the Stoney Creek Drive intersection. The Springhill Development, at full build -out, will generate about 824 VPD. We have analyzed the Avon Street corridor, assuming worst case scenario where 80% of the residential traffic from the Springhill Neighborhood will be distributed onto Avon Street Extended and 50% of the commercial traffic will go to Avon Street Extended. Using this information and based on this traffic distribution, we have provided the left turn warrant analysis for the development. We are using the volume of traffic on Avon Street Extended from the Biscuit Run report, as it appears to be a worst case analysis with volumes 20% to 25% higher than current VDOT traffic counts. The Peak PM movement is the worst case condition with 38 vehicles entering the site. We are assuming that 36 of the 38 vehicles are travelling south on Avon Street Extended and turning into the site. Based on this assumption, 36 of the (348 + 36) Peak PM VPH will be turning into the site during Peak PM traffic, which is 10% turning movement. The design speed it 50 MPH, and the opposing traffic volume is 100 VPH. The attached figure plots the left turn warrant analysis, and based on this information, which is a worst case analysis, a left turn lane in not warranted in for this intersection. The Peak AM movement also does not warrant a left turn. While the opposing traffic is roughly 340 VPH, the advancing volumes are approximately 100 VPH, with about 15 of the vehicle trips turning left into the development. The attached figure plots the left turn warrant analysis, and based on this information, a left turn in not warranted in for this intersection during the Peak AM traffic volumes. Based on the provided analysis above and the projected trips (using VDOT 2018 traffic counts and previous traffic studies) a left turn lane is not warranted for the Springhill Development along Avon Street Extended. Sincerely, n �cett� ��iit� Scott Collins STREET L --BERWYN LANE— II A T L ai a °i ai ai ai ,°r ,or ar mr ar °i mr mr a / 1 w m as ei m m m w e: w w es m e, es av i°i r io 000 SF I i OFFICE DISTRIBUTION 'K, BLDG. — — — —zo%RESIDENTIAL 50%COMMERICAL ___ _ •j' c �— - --.� TRIP GENERATION CALCULATIONS TRIP —GENERA I IUN BASED ON ITE TRIP GENERATION MANUAL (ioTH EDITION) ioo MULTIFAMILY HOUSING (LOW-RISE) - CODE zzo io,000 SF COMMERCIAL OFFICE SPACE - CODE 720 (PHASE II) RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL (PHASE II) ADT: 732 VPD (366 ENTER/ 366 EXIT) 98 VPD (49 ENTER/pg EXIT) AM PEAK: 46 VPH (ii ENTER/35 EXIT) 12 (io ENTER/2 EXIT) E in it N M M 314 (259) 13 (51) 158 (217) Mill 56 (18)j (' Creek Drive 57 (19)� N 16 (4)� o � n 0 0 0 �80 (41) j f-9 (5) i Avinity Drive o rn M LEGEND X (Y) AM (PM) Peak Hour Traffic Volumes KRA:MEY KEMPAvinity Build(2016)TrafficVolumesIATES Albemarle County, Virginia TRARJSPORIAScale: Not to Scale Figure 7 P RQ � P N 1� I 7 C 118/50 J } 3/7 —i +I =a Reynovia Dr. � n R OG 6 a 174/47 —� f 915 Stony Creek Dr. P ti N 5 " 521339 �n o a� Avon St. Dr. C 'nRM N g M 366/296 183/281 8 98/36 24/5 y Mill Creek Dr. d M r'1 �v 9 143119 0 125n3 r � Southem Pkwy. r= Mill Creek L \\ oviarive ,0 \ 7 20 6 7 5 _ 12,891 vpd S3 Site Drive #3 M1 O� O � N S3 5 0/0 f a 0/0 o m Drive #3 a LEGEND 333/555 - AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic Conditions 8 Intersection Study Number 22 v� P N M1 er P W � �j 10 571/332 J - t 19/52 N qa r a Mill Creek Dr. PROPOSED BISCUIT RUN DEVELOPMENT ALBEMARLECOUNTY, VIRGINIA BACKGROUND (2021) PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC CONDITIONS SCALE: Not to Scale Figure 4-D Spring Hill - Avon Street Extended Turn lane Analysis - Peak PM F-65 WARRANT FOR LEFT -TURN STORAGE LANES ON TWO-LANE HIGHWAY M = 700 o_ Z 600 w Z) 500 J 0 > 400 0 Z (n 300 0 d 0- 200 0 0 > 100 M. = 700 a > 600 w � 500 J 0 > 400 O Z (n 300 O n 0- 200 0 0 > 100 L = % Left Turns in 5 = Storage Length V = 50 mph (Design L=5% S=200' Left -Turn zuu 4UU 600 800 1000 VA ADVANCING VOLUME (VPH) FIGURE 3-11 `• L00 40U 600 800 Spring hill: VA ADVANCING VOLUME (VPH) Peak PM traffic movement FIGURE 3-12 Advancing Volume: 384 VPH Opposing Volume: 100 VPH Percent Left turn: 36 Veh. (10% 1000 Spring Hill - Avon Street Extended Turn lane Analysis - Peak AM F-66 WARRANT FOR LEFT -TURN STORAGE LANES ON TWO-LANE HIGHWAY :11 = 700 a > 600 W 500 J O > 400 C� Z U5 300 O 0- a- 200 O 0 > 100 Spring hill: c 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Peak AM traffic movement VA ADVANCING VOLUME (VPH) Advancing Volume: 88+15 VPH Opposing Volume: 340 VPH Percent Left turn: 15 800 = 700 a > 600 w � 500 J O > 400 Z Zij 300 O a a 200 O 0 > 100 FIGURE 3-13 VA ADVANCING VOLUME (VPH) FIGURE 3-14