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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCPA200700004 Legacy Document 2007-09-11 (6)Attachment A COUNTY OF ALBEMARLE i'fRGiNlP MEMORANDUM TO: Fiscal Impact Advisory Committee FROM: Steven A. Allshouse, Fiscal Impact Analyst DATE: April 12, 2007 RE: PROFFERS CALCULATIONS FOR VARIOUS CATEGORIES OF DWELLING UNITS IN ALBEMARLE COUNTY. Background . At its February 22, 2007 meeting the County's Fiscal Impact Advisory Committee approved a methodology for estimating the dollar value of proffers that the County could expect for new Single Family Detached residences (SFD's), Single Family Attached/Townhouse/Condominium (SFA/TH) dwelling units, Multifamily/Apartment (MF) units, and Mobile Homes (MH's). This memorandum outlines the methodology that the Committee approved, and lists the dollar values, per dwelling unit, that this approved methodology currently would render, based on Albemarle's FY 2006/07 adopted budget. Please note that the dollar figures contained in this memorandum are subject to annual revision, and that these items represent numbers that the Board of Supervisors could include in a proffer policy but, by themselves, these dollar figures do not constitute a proffer policy. As part of its preliminary work, the Committee surveyed proffer models from several Virginia counties, including Chesterfield, Greene, Hanover, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, and Stafford. The Committee determined that these localities expect proffers to cover development - related capital costs only, as opposed to development -related capital and operating costs. The Committee learned, also, that the capital categories typically covered in the counties' proffer models included transportation, schools, and parks/recreation/open space, and public safety. The Albemarle County Attorney, and outside experts who met with the Committee, noted that a viable proffers model for Albemarle should include estimates pertaining only to capital costs. The distinction between capital and operating expenditures is important since the County's current Cost Revenue Impact Model (CRIM) includes estimates of operating costs along with estimates of debt service on capital costs in calculating the net fiscal impact of development. This situation suggests that CRIM, in its present form, would not be suitable as a proffers calculation model for Albemarle. Attachment A Proffers Calculations April 12, 2007 Page Two With this background information in mind, the Committee labored to establish a methodology that would estimate the capital costs that various types of dwelling units typically would generate in Albemarle County. Note that, of all the proffers calculation models that the Committee reviewed, the Chesterfield County model appeared especially attractive as a framework for the Committee's efforts, since the methodology behind Chesterfield's model appeared reasonable and, apparently, this jurisdiction's proffers regime has survived at least one legal challenge. The following section, therefore, outlines a methodology that the Committee derived in substantial part from the Chesterfield proffers calculation model. MethodolgW The essential task facing the Committee involved the estimation of capital costs and offsetting revenues. The Committee divided the County's capital costs into the categories of transportation expenditures and non -transportation expenditures. This bifurcation of costs reflected a commonly - held sentiment among Committee members that, in the years to come, development -generated transportation infrastructure expenditures would represent, relative to all other categories of infrastructure costs, a particularly large portion of the County's capital outlays, especially if the Commonwealth of Virginia does not provide adequate funding for transportation projects in Albemarle. The Committee was advised, however, that, for the purposes of proffers calculations, the County's transportation cost estimates, along with the cost estimates for all other capital categories, should reflect only items for which Albemarle actually has budgeted dollar amounts. This advice, in practice, meant that the proffers calculations contained in this memorandum take into account only items found in the County's currently -adopted Capital Improvements Program/Capital Needs Assessment (CIP/CNA), Strategic Plan, and Master Plan policy. After determining capital costs, the Committee then estimated the revenues that help offset these capital costs. The difference between the County's capital costs and offsetting revenues rendered net cost figures. These net cost figures equal the dollar value that Albemarle should expect in proffers per dwelling unit. Transportation Capital Costs In order to calculate the County's development -related transportation capital costs, the Committee needed to determine the total dollar value of currently -budgeted projects and then translate these total transportation expenditures into dollar amounts per dwelling unit, by type of dwelling unit. This section recounts the steps that the Committee took to derive unit costs from total costs. Table I, on the following page, reveals the budgeted expenditures for Albemarle's various transportation projects through FY 2015/16. Note that many of the items included in the County's Master Plan policy and CIP/CNA are slated for construction several years into the future and, consequently, the construction costs that are found in Albemarle's Master Plan policy and CIP/CNA typically are stated in inflated dollars.' The total inflated cost of the County's budgeted transportation projects comes to roughly $95,844,000. In FY 2006/07 dollars, however, Albemarle's budgeted transportation costs come to approximately $82,408,000.2 The Committee made the Attachment A Table I Estimated Net County Cost of Albemarle Transportation Projects that are Included in the County's CIP/CNA, Strategic Plan, and Master Plan Policy, through FY 2015/16 Note: The numbers presented here are subject to annual revision. Inflated dollars are calcu- lated assuming a non -compounded rate of growth of 5% per annum. Deflated dollars rep- resent costs in 2006 dollars. Some projects, e.g., Southern Parkway have cost estimates in 2006 dollars but have no firm start/finish dates, so the "inflated" and "deflated" costs, for the purposes of this table, are the same. Source: Appendix Table A-1 assumption that this $82,408,000 in capital improvements would accommodate ten years' worth of new development, both residential and non-residential, in a way that would maintain current levels of transportation service. In order to calculate unit costs, therefore, the Committee needed to estimate the total number of new dwelling units and non-residential square footage that the County could expect to gain over a ten year period, and then had to assign costs to each of these units. A survey of Albemarle's annual Development Activity Report for each of the years 1984 through 2003 inclusive reveals that, on average, the County experienced the construction of 508 SFD's, 115 SFA/TH's, 197 MF's, and 33 MH's annually between 1984 and 2003. During the course of ten years, therefore, Albemarle reasonably could expect to gain 5,080 SFD's, 1,150 SFA/TH's, 1,970 MF's, and 330 MH S.3 A study of the volume of non-residential site plan square footage that the County approved between 1984 and 2003 suggests that, in a ten year period, Albemarle could expect to gain 2,150,000 square feet of retail space, 1,060,000 square feet of taxable office space, 672,000 Estimated Estimated Net County Cost Net County Cost Project Name (in Inflated $) (in Deflated $) Eastern Connector (1st Phase) 9,000,000 9,000,000 Georgetown Road 2,750,000 2,750,000 Hillsdale Road Connector 79,000 65,833 Jarmans Gap Road 696,968 696,968 Meadow Creek Parkway (1st Phase) 3,290,429 3,133,742 Revenue Sharing Road Program 10,000,000 10,000,000 Southern Parkway (1st Phase) 6,200,000 6,200,000 Crozet Master Plan 8,990,000 7,991,190 Neighborhood 6 & 7 Master Plan 10,286,100 7,590,000 Pantops Master Plan 11,295,900 9,108,000 Places 29 Master Plan 13,840,200 10,824,000 Rivanna Master Plan 9,221,850 7,260,000 So. Urban Area Master Plan 10,193,700 7,788,000 Total Costs $95,844,147 $82,407,733 Note: The numbers presented here are subject to annual revision. Inflated dollars are calcu- lated assuming a non -compounded rate of growth of 5% per annum. Deflated dollars rep- resent costs in 2006 dollars. Some projects, e.g., Southern Parkway have cost estimates in 2006 dollars but have no firm start/finish dates, so the "inflated" and "deflated" costs, for the purposes of this table, are the same. Source: Appendix Table A-1 assumption that this $82,408,000 in capital improvements would accommodate ten years' worth of new development, both residential and non-residential, in a way that would maintain current levels of transportation service. In order to calculate unit costs, therefore, the Committee needed to estimate the total number of new dwelling units and non-residential square footage that the County could expect to gain over a ten year period, and then had to assign costs to each of these units. A survey of Albemarle's annual Development Activity Report for each of the years 1984 through 2003 inclusive reveals that, on average, the County experienced the construction of 508 SFD's, 115 SFA/TH's, 197 MF's, and 33 MH's annually between 1984 and 2003. During the course of ten years, therefore, Albemarle reasonably could expect to gain 5,080 SFD's, 1,150 SFA/TH's, 1,970 MF's, and 330 MH S.3 A study of the volume of non-residential site plan square footage that the County approved between 1984 and 2003 suggests that, in a ten year period, Albemarle could expect to gain 2,150,000 square feet of retail space, 1,060,000 square feet of taxable office space, 672,000 Attachment A Proffers Calculations April 12, 2007 Page Four square feet of industrial space, and 1,590,000 square feet of institutional space.4 These ten year dwelling unit and non-residential square footage figures appear in the second column of Table H on the next page. Along with estimated dwelling unit and square footage data, this table contains the remaining set of information that the Committee needed in order to estimate unit transportation costs. Note that transportation projects do not serve dwelling units and non-residential space per se but, rather, serve the vehicle trips generated by these categories of development. The third column of Table II reveals the average number of daily vehicle trips associated with each of the four types of dwelling units mentioned previously and shows, also, the average number of daily vehicle trips associated with a thousand square feet of each of the four types of non-residential space that are contained in the County's Cost Revenue Impact Model.5 The average SFD, for example, generates 9.57 daily vehicle trips, while a thousand square feet of retail space produces, on average, 47.56 vehicle trips. The fourth column of the Table II shows the estimated total number of daily vehicle trips that ten years' growth would render for each category of residential and non-residential development. In the case of SFD's, for example, the County could expect 5,080 new units in a ten year period, and this type of dwelling unit generates, on average, 9.57 daily vehicle trips. Ten years' worth of growth in single family detached residences, therefore, renders an expected total of 5,080 x 9.57 = 48,616 daily vehicle trips. Albemarle, likewise, could expect a total of 2,150,000 square feet of new retail space during the course of a decade, and a thousand square feet of this type of non-residential space typically produces 47.56 daily vehicle trips. The equivalent of a decade's worth of retail development, therefore, produces an expected 2,150 x 47.56 = 102,271 daily vehicle trips. The sum of the numbers in the fourth column of Table II equals the total number of daily vehicle trips that would result from a decade's worth of growth in Albemarle. This figure equals 213,149 and is found on the "Total Number of New Daily Vehicle Trips" line of Table H. Recall from Table I that the County has budgeted a total of $82,407,733 in transportation projects through FY 2015/16. Recall, also, that the Committee assumed that the transportation projects for which the County has budgeted through FY 2015/16 would accommodate ten years' worth of growth in a way that would maintain present levels of transportation service. The cost of Albemarle's budgeted transportation projects, per daily vehicle trip, therefore, equals $82,407,733/213,149 = $387. This amount is found on the "Total $ Cost of Projects Per Daily Veh. Trip" line of Table H. This $387 figure provides the basis for calculating transportation costs per dwelling unit since the third column of Table H shows, for each of the four categories of residential development, the average number of daily vehicle trips per dwelling unit. As mentioned previously the typical SFD generates 9.57 daily vehicle trips, so the County's transportation cost per SFD would be $387 x 9.57 = $3,700. This figure is found in the fifth column of Table II, as are figures for all the other categories of development.6 As a clarification, this $3,700 number represents the typical SFD's share of the $82,497,733 in capital costs that the County has budgeted for transportation improvements. The corresponding transportation cost for an SFA/TH, MF, and MH equals $2,266, $2,598, and Attachment A IF17[al Albemarle County Estimated Number of New Dwelling Units, Non -Residential Square Footage, Daily Vehicle Trips, and Total Dollar Cost (Per Dwelling Unit or Thousand Square Feet of Non -Residential Space) of County Transportation Projects, by FY 2014/15 Daily Veh. Est. Total No. Total $ Cost Land Use Est. No. of Trips Per Unit of New Daily Per D.U. or Category New Units or 1K SF Veh. Trips 1,000 SF SFD 5,080 9.57 48,616 $3,700 SFA/TH 1,150 5.86 6,739 $2,266 MF 1,970 6.72 13,238 $2,598 MH 330 4.99 1,647 $1,929 Retail SF 2,150,356 47.56 102,271 $18,388 Tax. Office SF 1,059,698 8.42 8,923 $3,255 Industrial SF 672,473 3.43 2,307 $1,326 Institutional SF 1,587,094 18.53 29,409 $7,164 Total Number of New Daily Vehicle Trips 213,149 Total Est. Cost of Transportation Projs. $82,407,733 Total $ Cost of Projects Per Daily Veh. Trip $387 Note: The total dollar cost per residential dwelling unit or thousand square feet of non-residential dwelling space is calculated by multiplying the total dollar cost of projects per daily vehicle trip by the number of daily verhicle trips gener- ated by the relevant land use type. Dollar figures are in 2006 dollars. Sources: The estimated number of new residential dwelling units and non- residential square footage is derived from historical data contained in the County's various Development Activity Reports. The total estimated dollar cost of transpor- tation projects is taken from Table I. The number of daily vehicle trips, by land use type, is taken directly from, or derived from data contained in, Trip Generation, 7th Edition, published by the Institute of Transportation Engineers. Attachment A Proffers Calculations April 12, 2007 Page Six $1,929 respectively. Please note that these numbers, along with all of the other cost and revenue estimates in this memorandum, will undergo revision as Albemarle's adopted budget changes from year to year. Non -Transportation Capital Costs In order to calculate the County's development -related non -transportation capital costs, the Committee needed to determine the total dollar value of currently -budgeted projects and then translate these total non -transportation expenditures into dollar amountsper dwelling unit, by type of dwelling unit. This section recounts the steps that the Committee took to derive unit costs from total costs. Table III, on the next two pages, reveals Albemarle's budgeted non -transportation capital costs, through FY 2014/15, for which the County will pay using borrowed funds. As was the case with transportation costs, the amounts listed in Table III have been deflated to year 2006 dollars. Note that the third column of Table III lists an "assumed demand base" for each project. In the County's current Cost Revenue Impact Model, the dollar amount spent for each capital item in Albemarle's budget is assumed to vary with changes in some underlying demand base. In the case of transportation projects, as already noted, costs are assumed to vary with the number of daily vehicle trips generated by new residential and non-residential development. In the case of non -transportation capital projects, however, a particular line item's cost is assumed to vary with changes in a relevant demand base such as population, population plus j obs, elementary school enrollments, middle school enrollments, high school enrollments, and total school enrollments. The "$ Grand Total" line in the yellow highlighted area of Table III shows the ten year grand total of the County's non -transportation capital projects costs. The rest of the lines in this column of the table show the dollar portion of this grand total that is associated with each of the demand bases mentioned in the preceding paragraph. The ten year grand total comes to $160,734,339, while the portion of that grand total that is generated by a decade's worth of growth in population, for example, equals $51,212,626. The fourth column of the yellow highlighted area of Table III reveals the expected total number of demand units that will result from a decade's worth of new development in Albemarle.$ This data furnishes enough information to derive non -transportation capital costs per demand unit. In the case of the population demand base, for example, the total dollar value of a decade's worth of capital costs comes to $51,212,626 and the County can expect to add 21,172 people over the course of ten years. The dollar cost per demand unit of this particular demand base, then, comes to $51,212,626/21,172 = $2,419. The dollar cost per demand unit of elementary school enrollment (ES), likewise, equals $30,597,549/1,300 = $23,528. A similar exercise renders dollar values for all of the other line items in the fifth column of the highlighted area, except that the $18,843 figure that appears on the "$ Grand Total" line of the table reflects the total non - transportation capital costs per new dwelling unit in Albemarle. This $18,843 figure represents a straight average and, consequently, does not distinguish the non- Attachment A transportation capital costs generated by dwelling units in the four different categories of residential Table III Albemarle County Local Government & Schools Division Borrowed Funds for CIP/CNA Projects, FY 05/06 through FY 14/15 (in 2006 Dollars) 10 Year Assumed Item Amt. Dem. Base Courts Expansion 6,441,331 Population Northern Fire Station 1,636,364 Population & Jobs Pantops Fire Station 3,981,729 Population & Jobs Ivy Fire Station 5,717,706 Population & Jobs Fire Apparatus 11,431,484 Population & Jobs Crozet Ladder Truck 1,303,200 Population & Jobs Fire/Police Range 1,469,234 Population & Jobs COB -McIntire Renovations 3,537,143 Population Recreational Facilities 1,933,333 Population Southern Area Park 1,600,997 Population Crozet Community Park 2,356,765 Population Northern Park 2,308,800 Population Northside Library 6,197,391 Population 29 North Library 9,323,153 Population Crozet Library 5,169,974 Population Southern Library 5,550,833 Population Central Library 4,356,888 Population Scottsville Library 2,436,018 Population Elementary Site Land Acq. 1,620,833 Elem. School Enroll. Henley Addition/Renovation 1,000,000 Middle School Enroll. Murray High School Renovations 149,000 High School Enroll. Cale Addition 2,726,667 Elem. School Enroll. Elementary #17 12,010,712 Elem. School Enroll. ADA Structural Changes 133,192 Total School Enroll. Monticello High School Audit. 5,305,714 High School Enroll. Monticello HS Aux. Gym. 1,999,000 High School Enroll. WAHS Audit. Moveable Wall 371,429 High School Enroll. Bldg. Svcs. Office/Warehouse 3,495,968 Total School Enroll. Additional High School Capacity 7,255,157 High School Enroll. WAHS Window Replacement 381,818 High School Enroll. Wide Area Network Upgrade 1,020,000 Total School Enroll. Schools Maint./Rept. -- Financed 19,193,031 Total School Enroll. Veh. Maint. Fac. -- Emerg. Gen. 165,000 Total School Enroll. Jouett-Greer Site Reconfig. 652,381 Elem. + Middle School Enroll. Red Hill Elem. -- Add./Renov. 3,063,659 Elem. School Enroll. Attachment A Table III (Cont.) Sources: Dollar amounts for CIP projects are taken from Table A-4. The number of new dwelling or demand units is derived from Table II and from the population, job, and pupil enrollment generation factors contained in the County's Cost Revenue Impact Model. 10 Year Assumed Item Amt. Dem. Base Scottsville Add./Renovation 2,221,341 Elem. School Enroll. Gym. HVAC/Light Replacement 2,608,074 Total School Enroll. Greer Elem. School Renov. 4,446,400 Elem. School Enroll. Henley Aux. PE/Meeting Space 702,667 Middle School Enroll. Elementary#18 1,071,429 Elem. School Enroll. Albemarle HS Add./Renovation 8,952,016 High School Enroll. Additional Elem. Capacity 3,436,508 Elem. School Enroll. No. of Dw. $ Per Dwell. Units or Unit or Dem. Units Dem. Unit $ Grand Total 160,734,339 Est. 10 Year No. of Dwell. Uts. 8,530 $18,843 $ Total Based on Population 51,212,626 Est. 10 Year Population 21,172 $2,419 $ Total Based on Pop. & Jobs 25,539,717 Est. 10 Year Pop. + Jobs 34,531 $740 $ Total Based on ES Enroll. 30,597,549 Est. 10 Year ES Enroll. 1,300 $23,528 $ Total Based on ES + MS Enr. 652,381 Est. 10 Year ES + MS Enroll. 2,048 $319 $ Total Based on MS Enroll. 1,702,667 Est. 10 Year MS Enroll. 748 $2,277 $ Total Based on HS Enroll. 24,414,134 Est. 10 Year HS Enroll. 822 $29,719 $ Total Based on Total S Enroll. 26,615,265 Est. 10 Year Total Enroll. 2,870 $9,274 Sources: Dollar amounts for CIP projects are taken from Table A-4. The number of new dwelling or demand units is derived from Table II and from the population, job, and pupil enrollment generation factors contained in the County's Cost Revenue Impact Model. Attachment A Proffers Calculations April 12, 2007 Page Nine development. This dollar amount, in other words, is not specific enough for the purposes of proffers calculations and is presented for informational purposes only. The next step in the calculation of proffers amounts, therefore, involves translating the dollar amounts per demand unit that are found in Table III into dollar amounts per dwelling unit, by type of dwelling unit. Table IV, on the next four pages, accomplishes this task. Note that Table IV consists of four sections. Each page of the table pertains to one of the four categories of residential development in Albemarle. In order to understand the information contained in Table IV, think of a dwelling unit as being a "basket" of demand units. In the case of an SFD, for example, as shown in the "Dem. Units Per DU" column of the table, this "basket" contains 2.19 population demand units, 2.19 population plus jobs demand units, 0.1637 elementary school enrollment demand units, 0.1100 middle school enrollment demand units, 0.2737 elementary plus middle school enrollment demands units, 0.1300 high school enrollment demand units, and 0.4037 total school enrollment demand units. Each of these demand units, when multiplied by the corresponding dollars per demand unit ("$ Per Dem Unit") from Table III, produces the relevant dollar amount per dwelling unit that is generated by the demand base under examination. This amount is found in the "$ per DU" column of the table. Consider the case of the population demand base in an SFD. Each SFD is assumed to contain 2.19 people and, from Table III, we know that each SFD resident generates, on average, $2,419 in non - transportation capital costs. (This $2,419 amount appears again in the "$ Per Dem. Unit" column of Table IV). This situation means that the population demand units in the typical SFD generate a total of 2.19 x $2,419 = $5,297 in non -transportation capital expenditures. Similarly, the population portion of the population plus jobs demand base in an SFD renders $1,620 in non -transportation capital costs, while the corresponding elementary school enrollment demand base figure comes to $3,852. Note that the sum of the dollar amounts associated with the demand bases in an SFD comes to $18,714. This amount is found in the "Gross Total for Debt -Financed Infrastructure" line of the SFD section of Table IV and represents the total non -transportation infrastructure costs produced by a new SFD. Corresponding amounts for the other three categories of residential development are found on the same line of the SFA/TH, MF, and MH pages of the table. Now, in order to calculate the total capital costs generated by a dwelling unit in a particular category of residential development, we simply add the dollar value of the unit's non -transportation capital costs to the dollar value of the unit's transportation capital costs. Recall that Table II shows this latter figure in the "Total $ Cost Per D.U. or 1,000 SF" column. This transportation dollar amount is listed again, in Table IV, on the "Gross Total for Transportation Infrastructure" line on each of the dwelling unit category pages of Table IV. In the case of an SFD the dwelling unit's non - transportation capital costs total $18,714, while the dwelling unit's transportation capital costs come to $3,700. The total capital expenditures associated with an SFD, therefore, equal $18,714 + $3,700 = $22,414. Table IV lists this last amount on the "Gross Total Cost Per SFD" line of the SFD page. The dollar amounts of $15,506, $13,746, and $20,584 appear on the corresponding lines on the SFA/TH, MF, and MH pages of the table. Attachment A Table IV Albemarle County Debt -Financed & Transportation CIP/CNA/Strategic Plan Infrastructure Net Costs, by Dwelling Unit Type Dwelling 10% of Tx. Unit Dem. Units $ Per Rev. ($) (DU) Type Demand Base Per DU Dem. Unit Per DU Year Per DU SFD Population 2.19 2,419 5,297 1 427 Pop. Port. of Pop.+Jobs 2.1900 740 1,620 2 446 ES Enrollment 0.1637 23,528 3,852 3 466 ES+MS Enrollment 0.2737 319 87 4 487 MS Enrollment 0.1100 2,277 250 5 509 HS Enrollment 0.1300 29,719 3,863 6 531 Total Enrollment 0.4037 9,274 3,744 7 555 8 580 Gross Total for Debt -Financed Infrastructure $18,714 9 606 10 633 Gross Total for Transportation Infrastructure $3,700 11 661 12 691 Gross Total Cost Per SFD $22,414 13 721 14 754 15 787 16 823 17 859 18 898 19 938 20 980 Total $13,350 NPV $8,173 Net Total $ Per SFD (@ 10%) = Proffer Amt. $14,241 Attachment A Table IV (Cont.) Dwelling 10% of Tx. Unit Dem. Units $ Per Rev. ($) (DU) Type Demand Base Per DU Dem. Unit Per DU Year Per DU SFA/TH Population 1.89 2,419 4,572 1 317 Pop. Port. of Pop.+Jobs 1.8900 740 1,398 2 332 ES Enrollment 0.1238 23,528 2,913 3 347 ES+MS Enrollment 0.1938 319 62 4 362 MS Enrollment 0.0700 2,277 159 5 379 HS Enrollment 0.0600 29,719 1,783 6 396 Total Enrollment 0.2538 9,274 2,354 7 414 8 433 Gross Total for Debt -Financed Infrastructure $13,240 9 453 10 474 Gross Total for Transportation Infrastructure $2,266 11 495 12 518 Gross Total Cost Per SFA/TH $15,506 13 541 14 566 15 592 16 619 17 647 18 677 19 708 20 740 Total $10,011 NPV $6,066 Net Total $ Per SFA/TH (@10%) = Proffer Amt. $9,441 Attachment A Table IV (Cont.) Dwelling 10% of Tx. Unit Dem. Units $ Per Rev. ($) DU Type Demand Base Per DU Dem. Unit Per DU Year Per DU MF Population 1.63 2,419 3,943 1 242 Pop. Port. of Pop.+Jobs 1.6300 740 1,206 2 252 ES Enrollment 0.1315 23,528 3,094 3 264 ES+MS Enrollment 0.1715 319 55 4 276 MS Enrollment 0.0400 2,277 91 5 288 HS Enrollment 0.0300 29,719 892 6 301 Total Enrollment 0.2015 9,274 1,869 7 315 8 329 Gross Total for Debt -Financed Infrastructure $11,148 9 344 10 360 Gross Total for Transportation Infrastructure $2,598 11 376 12 393 Gross Total Cost Per MF $13,746 13 411 14 429 15 449 16 469 17 490 18 512 19 535 20 560 Total $3,347 NPV $2,311 Net Total $ Per MF (@10%) = Proffer Amt. $11,435 Attachment A Table IV (Cont.) Dwelling 10% of Tx. Unit Dem. Units $ Per Rev. ($) (DU) Type Demand Base Per DU Dem. Unit Per DU Year Per DU MH Population 2.19 2,419 5,297 1 299 Pop. Port. of Pop.+Jobs 2.1900 740 1,620 2 312 ES Enrollment 0.2044 23,528 4,809 3 325 ES+MS Enrollment 0.2944 319 94 4 339 MS Enrollment 0.0900 2,277 205 5 353 HS Enrollment 0.1000 29,719 2,972 6 368 Total Enrollment 0.3944 9,274 3,658 7 384 8 400 Gross Total for Debt -Financed Infrastructure $18,655 9 417 10 435 Gross Total for Transportation Infrastructure $1,929 11 454 12 473 Gross Total Cost Per MH $20,584 13 493 14 514 15 536 16 559 17 583 18 607 19 633 20 660 Total $4,086 NPV $2,867 Net Total $ Per MH (@10%) = Proffer Amt. $17,717 Notes: (a) Albemarle County policy places a ceiling of 10% on general fund and school fund revenues for debt service; Currently, the debt service percentage stands at roughly 6%; and (b) tax revenues are assumed to increase annually by 4.47% for an SFD; 4.56% for an SFA/TH; 4.52% for an MF; and 4.26% for an MH. Sources: Demand unit and tax revenue per DU are taken from the Cost Revenue Impact Model; Dollars per Demand Unit are taken from Table III; Gross totals for transportation infrastructure come from Table II; Assumptions about the rate of increase in tax revenue come from Table A-5; and the 10% debt service figure comes from the policy note found in the Albemarle County FY 06/07 Adopted Budget, p. 214. Attachment A Proffers Calculations April 12, 2007 Page Fourteen Revenues In order to estimate the net capital costs generated by the typical dwelling unit in each of the four categories of residential development, the Committee determined the net present value of a portion of the revenue that the typical dwelling unit in each category would generate over the course of twenty years, and then subtracted this amount from the relevant total capital cost in order to obtain the cash, or in-kind contribution, proffer amount that the County should expect per dwelling unit. Note that the total capital cost amounts discussed in the last section reflect gross capital expenditures. The Chesterfield proffers model recognizes that the capital expenditures associated with a new dwelling unit are offset, to a certain degree, by the tax revenues generated by that dwelling unit. In the case of the Chesterfield model, however, the only tax revenue that the model takes into consideration, apparently for the sake of simplicity, is real property tax revenue. In the Case of Albemarle, however, the Cost Revenue Impact Model has estimates for fourteen different federal, state, and local revenue streams associated with a dwelling unit in each of the four residential categories. Table A-5 in the Appendix of this memorandum reveals the details of these revenue streams. In the case of an SFD, the typical dwelling unit generates $4,269 in annual revenue for Albemarle, while the typical SFA/TH renders a corresponding amount of $3,171 to the County. An MF, meanwhile, generates an average of $2,416 each year for Albemarle, while the typical MH produces $2,989 in annual revenue to the County. The Chesterfield model assumes that Chesterfield will engage in debt financing in order to pay for the capital expenditures associated with a new dwelling unit and that the term of borrowing will equal twenty years. The Chesterfield model also assumes that, in each of the twenty years in question, Chesterfield will apply toward the service on this debt some fixed percentage of the revenues generated by the new dwelling unit and that the remainder of the revenues generated by the new dwelling unit will help fund operating costs associated with the unit. Note that, in this scheme, the revenues generated by the dwelling unit are assumed to increase annually by some fixed percentage. The Chesterfield model then totals the twenty years' worth of revenues that would be applied toward debt service and calculates the net present value of this sum. This last amount subsequently is subtracted from the gross dollar cost of the capital projects that are generated by the dwelling unit. This difference equals the net capital expenditure associated with the dwelling unit, and represents the cash amount, or dollar value of the in-kind contribution, that Chesterfield would expect the developer to proffer for the dwelling unit in question. The Committee decided to follow this methodology in order to calculate Albemarle's proffers amounts. In practical terms, this methodology presents something of a dilemma, since Albemarle's current debt service level, as a percentage of general fund and school revenues, stands at roughly 6%. The County's debt service policy, however, would allow this debt service level to rise to as much as 10%. In order to calculate the dollar value of the development -related revenues that would be applied to debt service, the Committee elected to use the 10% figure. The dollar amounts that result annually from the use of this 10% figure are shown in the last column on each page of Table IV. In the case Attachment A Proffers Calculations April 12, 2007 Page Fifteen of an SFD, as previously mentioned, the Committee determined that this type of dwelling unit typically renders $4,269 in revenue to the County. In Year 1, then, if we assume that the debt service payment will equal 10% of this revenue, then this payment amount comes to $427. This number appears on the first line of the "10% of Tx. Rev. ($) Per DU" column of Table IV. In subsequent years, this dollar number rises since the volume of revenue associated with an SFD is assumed to increase by a fixed annual percentage. The same situation applies to the three other categories of residential development.9 At the end of twenty years, 10% of the sum of the annual revenues generated by an SFD equals $13,350. Note that, assuming that revenues grew at a rate of 4.47% per annum for twenty years, the net present value (NPV) of $13,350 equals $8,173. This NPV amount is found on the "NPV" line of the SFD page of Table IV. The subtraction of this figure from $22,414 (the total present-day value of the capital costs associated with an SFD) renders $14,241. This figure represents the estimate of the cash amount, or dollar value of the in-kind contribution, that Albemarle would expect a developer to proffer per SFD. The corresponding number for an SFA/TH equals $9,441; the figure for an MF equals $11,435; and for an MH, the number comes to $17,717. Conclusions The Fiscal Impact Advisory Committee has derived, for each of the four categories of residential development in Albemarle County, a set of dollar figures that the Board of Supervisors could include in a proffers policy. The BOS should be aware that these dollar values pertain only to FY 2006/07 and that, once the County has adopted a new budget, the cost and revenue figures presented in this memorandum will change. As a matter of practice, the County's proffers numbers should be updated annually, as soon as the BOS adopts a new budget. The BOS should be aware, also, that the capital cost estimates contained in the transportation section of this memorandum reflect very preliminary numbers since the County does not yet have a clear idea of how much money several of the transportation projects listed on Table I will end up costing the County in coming years and, likewise, Albemarle does not yet have a clear idea of the extent to which the Commonwealth of Virginia will continue to fund roads in the County. Another issue which the BOS should keep in mind involves House Bill 2500, which Governor Kaine recently signed into law. This item likely will give the County additional flexibility with respect to the County's ability to collect growth - related monies from the development community. Presently, however, Albemarle has only a very preliminary understanding of the implications of the new law and, in any case, according to the County Attorney, Albemarle would have to adopt a zoning text amendment in order to take advantage of the newly enabled authority granted by the law. SAA/saa Attachment A ENDNOTES 1. Albemarle currently uses a construction cost inflation rate of five percent per annum, non - compounded, so a project that would cost $1,000,000 to build this fiscal year is assumed to cost $1,050,000 if the item were to be built next year, $1,100,000 if it were to be constructed two years from now, etc. 2. The transportation costs listed in this paragraph reflect net transportation costs to Albemarle, i.e., the total cost of the County's transportation projects minus any outside funding that the County presently expects to receive from other levels of government. 3. These ten year figures represent the gross increase in the number of dwelling units that the County could expect to experience over the course of a decade. The Committee made the assumption that there would be no loss of dwelling units during this time period, i.e., that the gross increase in the number of dwelling units equals the net increase in the number of dwelling units. The Committee should be aware that, as an alternative to using the "averages" approach in estimating the number of dwelling units that the County could expect to gain during a ten year period, the Committee could have used a "trend line" approach. This latter methodology represents a more sophisticated level of analysis than does the "averages" approach, and likely will be incorporated into Albemarle's proffer calculation model in the future. 4. See Appendix Table A-2 for details about the methodology behind these estimated non-residential numbers. Note that, in the case of non-residential square footage, the Committee made the same assumption regarding gross increases versus net increases that the Committee made with respect to residential dwelling units. Please note that the "trend line" approach mentioned in Endnote 3 also could be used to estimate the number of square feet of non-residential space that the County could expect to gain during the course of a decade. 5. Average daily vehicle trips per dwelling unit, by type of dwelling unit, were taken directly from Trip Generation, 7t' Edition, published by the Institute of Transportation Engineers. Please see Appendix Table A-3 for details about the derivation of the average daily vehicle trips per thousand square feet of non-residential space, by type of non-residential space. 6. Table II presents the transportation costs per thousand square feet of each of the four categories of non-residential space for informational purposes only. The Committee's task involved estimating proffers amounts for dwelling units only, not for dwelling units and non-residential space. 7. See Table A-4 for the inflated dollar amounts and proposed timing of each project. 8. The total number of new demand units was calculated from the following information. Recall that Table H shows the number of new dwelling units and non-residential square footage that the County can expect to experience over the course of a decade. Note that Albemarle's Cost Revenue Impact Model contains assumptions about the number of demand units, by type, that is generated by the typical dwelling unit in a particular category, or the typical thousand square feet of a particular category of non-residential space. These CRIM assumptions are shown on the next page. ENDNOTES (Cont.) 8. (Cont.) Attachment A In order to estimate the number of new demand units in, say, the category of population, the relevant equation is: P = [(5,080 x 2.69) + (1,150 x 2.33) + (1,970 x 2.00) + (330 x 2.69)] = 21,172 where 5,080 equals the ten year expected number of SFD's; 1,150 is the corresponding number of SFA/TH's; 1,970 is the corresponding figure for MF's; and 330 equals the ten year expected number of MH's. A similar exercise yields the figures shown on each of the other lines in the fourth column in the yellow highlighted area of Table 111, with the exception of the entry on the "$ Grand Total" line, which shows simply the total number of new dwelling units, not new demand units, that the County can expect to gain during the course of a decade. 9. The rate of the annual increase in the volume of revenue generated by a dwelling unit varies, however, among the different dwelling unit categories. This phenomenon results from differences in the relative size of the various revenues in each of the four dwelling unit categories. Please see Table A-5 for additional details. Note that, in the case of an SFD, revenue growth is estimated to equal 4.47% per annum, while revenue growth for an SFA/TH is calculated to come to 4.56% per annum. The respective figures for MF's and MH's are 4.52% and 4.26%. Total Total Total No. ES Enroll. MS Enroll. HS Enroll. Enroll. Pop. of Jobs SF Detached (SFD) 0.1637 0.11 0.13 0.4037 2.69 N/A SF Attached/TH (SFA/TH) 0.1238 0.07 0.06 0.2538 2.33 N/A Multifamily (MF) 0.1315 0.04 0.03 0.2015 2.00 N/A Mobile Homes (MH) 0.2044 0.09 0.10 0.3944 2.69 N/A Retail (1,000 SF) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.263 Taxable Office (1,000 SF) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.464 Institutional (1,000 SF) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.481 Industrial (1,000 SF) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.717 In order to estimate the number of new demand units in, say, the category of population, the relevant equation is: P = [(5,080 x 2.69) + (1,150 x 2.33) + (1,970 x 2.00) + (330 x 2.69)] = 21,172 where 5,080 equals the ten year expected number of SFD's; 1,150 is the corresponding number of SFA/TH's; 1,970 is the corresponding figure for MF's; and 330 equals the ten year expected number of MH's. A similar exercise yields the figures shown on each of the other lines in the fourth column in the yellow highlighted area of Table 111, with the exception of the entry on the "$ Grand Total" line, which shows simply the total number of new dwelling units, not new demand units, that the County can expect to gain during the course of a decade. 9. The rate of the annual increase in the volume of revenue generated by a dwelling unit varies, however, among the different dwelling unit categories. This phenomenon results from differences in the relative size of the various revenues in each of the four dwelling unit categories. Please see Table A-5 for additional details. Note that, in the case of an SFD, revenue growth is estimated to equal 4.47% per annum, while revenue growth for an SFA/TH is calculated to come to 4.56% per annum. The respective figures for MF's and MH's are 4.52% and 4.26%. Attachment A APPENDIX Attachment A Table A-1 -- Albemarle County Transportation Infrastructure Costs (Supporting Documentation for Table 1) Inflated Transportation Cost Estimates -- Master Planned Areas Total Cost FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Crozet MP $8,990,000 740,000 1,340,000 1,622,500 2,587,500 2,700,000 1,475,000 2,250,000 2,250,000 0 Pantops MP 11,295,900 217,800 1,669,800 3,960,000 3,300,000 $9,108,000 267,300 924,000 957,000 Places 29 MP 13,840,200 455,400 2,534,400 4,950,000 3,432,000 554,400 1,914,000 Rivanna MP 9,221,850 113,850 1,346,400 3,712,500 3,432,000 138,600 478500 So. Urban MP 10,193,700 396,000 237,600 1,815,000 4,290,000 3,564,000 287100 Neighborhood 6&7 MP 10,286,100 1,122,000 2,970,000 247,500 1,887,600 4,455,000 3,696,000 330,000 Total MP Costs $63,827,750 Deflated Transportation Cost Estimates -- Master Planned Areas Total Cost FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Crozet MP $7,991,190 740,000 1,276,190 1,475,000 2,250,000 2,250,000 0 0 0 0 0 Pantops MP $9,108,000 0 0 198,000 1,452,000 3,300,000 2,640,000 0 198,000 660,000 660,000 Places 29 MP $10,824,000 0 0 0 396,000 2,112,000 3,960,000 2,640,000 0 396,000 1,320,000 Rivanna MP $7,260,000 0 0 0 99,000 1,122,000 2,970,000 2,640,000 0 99,000 330,000 So. Urban MP $7,788,000 0 0 0 0 198,000 1,452,000 3,300,000 2,640,000 0 198,000 Neighborhood 6&7 MP $7,590,000 0 0 0 0 0 198,000 1,452,000 3,300,000 2,640,000 0 Total MP Costs $50,561,190 Attachment A Table A-1 (Cont.) Inflated Transportation Cost Estimates -- Other Transportation Total Cost FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Hillsdale Rd. Connector $79,000 79,000 East. Connector (1st Phase) 9,000,000 Georgetown Road 2,750,000 Revenue Sharing Rd. Prog. 10,000,000 Jarmans Gap Road 696,968 Meadowcreek Parkway (1st Ph.) 3,290,429 3,290,429 Southern Parkway (1st Ph.) 6,200,000 Total Other Costs $32,016,397 Deflated Cost Estimates -- Other Transportation Total Cost FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Hillsdale Rd. Connector $65,833 0 0 0 0 65,833 0 0 0 0 East. Connector (1st Phase) 9,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Road 2,750,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Revenue Sharing Rd. Prog. 10,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jarmans Gap Road 696,968 Meadowcreek Parkway (1 st Ph.) 3,133,742 0 3,133,742 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Southern Parkway (1st Ph.) 6,200,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Other Costs $31,846,543 0 0 0 0 0 0 Attachment A Table A-1 (Cont.) Note: Albemarle County assumes a non -compounded inflation rate of 5% per annum for CIP/CNA/Strategic Plan infrastructure costs. Deflated costs are in 2006 dollars. Sources: Dollar figures and start/stop dates for Master Planned area projects, Georgetown Road, Eastern Connector, Jarmans Gap Road, Meadowcreek Parkway, and Southern Parkway come from the "Master Plan Cost Scenarios" spreadsheet supplied by Andy Bowman, Management Analyst, January 2007. Hillsdale Road Connector and Revenue Sharing Road Program numbers and start/stop dates come from the Albemarle County FY 06/07 Adopted Budget, p. 205. Attachment A Table A-2 Estimated Total Square Footage of Non -Residential Space in Albemarle County (1983-2003) & Estimated Ten Year Supply of Non -Residential Space Retail Tax. Office Industrial Institutional Year SF SF SF SF Total SF 1983 1,573,000 177,000 2,240,000 2,125,000 6,115,000 1984 1,681,000 177,000 2,275,000 2,138,000 6,271,000 1985 1,808,000 270,000 2,445,000 2,153,000 6,676,000 1986 1,932,000 395,000 2,505,000 2,323,000 7,155,000 1987 2,176,000 454,000 2,660,000 2,412,000 7,702,000 1988 2,584,000 504,000 2,886,000 2,417,000 8,391,000 1989 3,521,000 605,000 3,026,000 3,167,000 10,319,000 1990 3,734,000 735,000 3,116,000 3,210,000 10,795,000 1991 4,006,000 760,000 3,116,000 3,347,000 11,229,000 1992 4,072,000 760,000 3,116,000 3,422,000 11,370,000 1993 4,087,000 950,000 3,171,000 3,521,000 11,729,000 1994 4,109,000 1,025,000 3,241,000 3,614,000 11,989,000 1995 4,178,000 1,238,000 3,241,000 3,635,000 12,292,000 1996 4,294,000 1,318,000 3,266,000 3,830,000 12,708,000 1997 4,451,000 1,479,000 3,266,000 3,914,000 13,110, 000 1998 4,652,219 1,716,708 3,290,000 4,093,757 13,752,684 1999 4,851,503 1,989,368 3,312,510 4,109,717 14,263,098 2000 4,968,326 2,249,268 3,312,510 4,281,088 14,811,192 2001 5,550,755 2,296,396 3,504,050 5,000,310 16,351,511 2002 5,664,335 2,296,396 3,524,950 5,289,208 16,774,889 2003 5,873,712 2,296,396 3,584,945 5,299,188 17,054,241 20 Yr. Avg. Grth. 215,036 105,970 67,247 158,709 546,962 Est. 10 Yr. SF 2,150,356 1,059,698 672,473 1,587,094 5,469,621 Sources: Figures for 1997 are taken from the FY 97/98 version of the Albemarle County Cost Revenue Impact Model (CRIM); Figures for previous and subsequent years were de- rived using site plan approval data from the various editions of the Albemarle County Development Activity Report for the years 1984 through 2003 inclusive. Methodology: Figures for each of the years 1983 through 1996 inclusive and 1998 through 2003 inclusive were estimated by taking the total square footage of the subse- quent or previous year, and subtracting or adding to that number the site plan square footage that the County approved in that subsequent or previous year. The number of square feet for 1997 is assumed to be the total for the end of calendar year 1997. The number of square feet for 1996, then, was estimated by taking the 1997 figure and subtracting from it the number of square feet of space that the County approved in 1997. The number of square feet for 1998, likewise, was calculated as equaling the 1997 figure plus the number of square feet that the County approved in 1998. Attachment A Table A-3 Average Daily Vehicle Trip Generation per 1,000 Square Feet of Gross Floor Area (By ITE Land Use Code) ITE Weekday Saturday Sunday Weekday Land Use Trip Trip Trip No. or Wt. Code Land Use Type -- Retail Generation Generation Generation Average 437 Bowling Alley 33.33 N/A N/A 33.33 443 Movie Theater without Matinee 78.06 99.28 81.90 81.64 491 Racquet/Tennis Club 14.03 21.35 17.40 15.56 492 Health/Fitness Club 32.93 20.87 26.73 30.32 493 Athletic Club 43.00 38.46 36.77 41.46 630 Clinic 31.45 N/A N/A 31.45 720 Medical -Dental Office Building 36.13 8.96 1.55 27.31 812 Building Materials and Lumber Store 45.16 51.60 24.50 43.13 813 Free -Standing Discount Superstore 49.21 57.50 46.98 50.08 814 Specialty Retail Center 44.32 42.04 20.43 40.58 815 Free -Standing Discount Store 56.02 71.19 54.90 58.03 816 Hardware/Paint Store 51.29 82.52 68.65 58.23 817 Nursery/Garden Center 36.08 72.71 58.46 44.51 818 Nursery/Wholesale 39.00 29.90 26.47 35.91 820 Shopping Center 42.94 42.97 25.24 40.42 823 Factory Outlet Center 26.59 40.97 26.16 28.58 841 New Car Sales 33.34 21.03 10.48 28.32 843 Automobile Parts Sales 61.91 N/A N/A 61.91 848 Tire Store 24.87 N/A N/A 24.87 849 Tire Superstore 20.36 19.03 N/A 20.14 850 Supermarket 102.24 177.59 166.44 122.18 851 Convenience Market (Open 24 Hrs.) 737.99 863.10 758.45 758.79 853 Convenience Market with Gas Pumps 845.60 1,448.33 1,182.08 979.77 854 Discount Supermarket 96.82 117.03 102.54 100.52 860 Wholesale Market 6.73 1.59 2.30 5.36 861 Discount Club 41.80 53.75 33.67 42.35 862 Home Improvement Superstore 29.80 45.67 N/A 32.45 863 Electronics Superstore 45.04 N/A N/A 45.04 869 Discount Home Furnishing Superstore 47.81 70.01 N/A 51.51 870 Apparel Store 66.40 N/A N/A 66.40 879 Arts and Crafts Store 56.55 N/A N/A 56.55 880 Pharm./Drug. w/o Drive -Through Window 90.06 N/A N/A 90.06 881 Pharm./Drug. w/ Drive -Through Window 88.16 N/A N/A 88.16 890 Furniture Store 5.06 4.94 4.64 4.98 911 Walk-in Bank 156.48 13.70 8.33 114.92 912 Drive-in Bank 246.49 71.21 22.15 189.40 931 Quality Restaurant 89.95 94.36 72.16 88.04 932 High -Turnover (Sit -Down) Restaurant 127.15 158.37 131.84 132.28 933 Fast -Food Rest. w/o a Drive -Through Wind. 716.00 696.00 500.00 682.29 934 Fast -Food Rest. w/ a Drive -Through Wind. 496.12 722.03 542.72 535.05 Median 47.56 Attachment A ITE Weekday Saturday Sunday Weekday Land Use Trip Trip Trip No. or Wt. Code Land Use Type -- Taxable Office Generation Generation Generation Average 710 General Office Building 11.01 2.37 0.98 8.34 714 Corporate Headquarters Building 7.98 N/A N/A 7.98 715 Single Tenant Office Building 11.57 N/A N/A 11.57 750 Office Park 11.42 1.64 0.76 8.50 760 Research and Development Center 8.11 1.90 1.11 6.22 770 Business Park 12.76 2.56 1.29 9.66 Median 8.42 ITE Weekday Saturday Sunday Weekday Land Use Trip Trip Trip No. or Wt. Code Land Use Type -- Industrial Generation Generation Generation Average 030 Truck Terminal 9.85 1.89 1.02 7.45 110 General Light Industrial 6.97 1.32 0.68 5.26 120 General Heavy Industrial 1.50 N/A N/A 1.50 130 Industrial Park 6.96 2.49 0.73 5.43 140 Manufacturing 3.82 1.49 0.62 3.03 150 Warehousing 4.96 1.22 0.79 3.83 151 Mini -Warehouse 2.50 2.33 1.78 2.37 Median 3.43 ITE Weekday Saturday Sunday Weekday Land Use Trip Trip Trip No. or Wt. Code Land Use Type -- Institutional Generation Generation Generation Average 520 Elementary School 14.49 N/A N/A 14.49 522 Middle School/Junior High School 13.78 N/A N/A 13.78 530 High School 12.89 4.37 1.79 10.09 540 Junior/Community College 27.49 11.23 1.21 21.41 560 Church 9.11 10.37 36.63 13.22 561 Synagogue 10.64 5.91 22.50 11.66 565 Day Care Center 79.26 6.21 5.83 58.33 590 Library 54.00 46.55 25.49 48.86 610 Hospital 17.57 11.37 10.34 15.65 620 Nursing Home 6.10 N/A N/A 6.10 730 Government Office Building 68.93 N/A N/A 68.93 731 State Motor Vehicles Department 166.02 9.46 6.74 120.90 732 U.S. Post Office 108.19 48.69 28.81 88.35 733 Government Office Complex 27.92 N/A N/A 27.92 Median 18.53 Attachment A Source: Institute of Transportation Engineers, Trip Generation, 7th Edition. Table A-4 -- Albemarle County Debt -Financed Non -Transportation Infrastructure Costs (Supporting Documentation for Table III) Inflated Cost Estimates -- Local Government CIP/CNA Projects Item Courts Expansion Northern Fire Station Pantops Fire Station Ivy Fire Station Fire Apparatus Crozet Ladder Truck Fire/Police Range COB -McIntire Renovations Recreational Facilities Southern Area Park Crozet Community Park Northern Park Northside Library 29 North Library Crozet Library Southern Library Central Library Scottsville Library Total Cost $7,558,000 1,712,000 4,326,000 6,555,000 13,577,000 1,629,000 1,634,000 3,655,000 2,030,000 2,154,000 2,859,000 3,032,000 7,081,000 12,601,000 5,473,000 7,921,000 5,644,000 3,386,000 Total Loc. Govt. Costs $92,827,000 FY O6 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 1,450,000 625,000 3,915,000 1,568,000 880,000 832,000 842,000 390,000 1,970,000 1,124,000 1,634,000 801,000 4,120,000 1,291,000 2,265,000 966,000 854,000 2,402,000 2,356,000 1,629,000 584,000 1,050,000 1,180,000 2,475,000 2,030,000 1,000,000 1,012,000 6,069,000 424,000 3,603,000 1,446,000 Attachment A FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 1,296,000 1,437,000 710,000 191,000 1,963,000 1,859,000 1,061,000 1,971,000 369,000 1,347,000 8,195,000 2,690,000 686,000 2,153,000 5,082,000 772,000 4,577,000 295,000 419,000 373,000 1,967,000 627,000 Attachment A Table A-4 (Cont.) Deflated Cost Estimates -- Local Government CIP/CNA Projects Item Total Cost FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 Courts Expansion $6,441,331 0 1,380,952 0 543,478 3,262,500 1,254,400 0 0 0 0 Northern Fire Station 1,636,364 880,000 0 756,364 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pantops Fire Station 3,981,729 842,000 371,429 1,790,909 977,391 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ivy Fire Station 5,717,706 0 1,556,190 728,182 0 3,433,333 0 0 0 0 0 Fire Apparatus 11,431,484 1,291,000 2,157,143 878,182 742,609 2,001,667 1,884,800 0 960,000 1,026,429 489,655 Crozet Ladder Truck 1,303,200 0 0 0 0 0 1,303,200 0 0 0 0 Fire/Police Range 1,469,234 0 556,190 0 913,043 0 0 0 0 0 0 COB -McIntire Renovations 3,537,143 1,180,000 2,357,143 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Recreational Facilities 1,933,333 0 1,933,333 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Southern Area Park 1,600,997 0 0 0 0 0 0 146,923 1,454,074 0 0 Crozet Community Park 2,356,765 0 0 0 869,565 0 1,487,200 0 0 0 0 Northern Park 2,308,800 0 0 0 0 0 848,800 0 1,460,000 0 0 Northside Library 6,197,391 0 0 920,000 5,277,391 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 North Library 9,323,153 0 0 0 0 0 295,200 1,036,154 6,070,370 1,921,429 0 Crozet Library 5,169,974 424,000 3,431,429 1,314,545 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Southern Library 5,550,833 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 508,148 1,537,857 3,504,828 Central Library 4,356,888 0 0 0 0 0 617,600 3,520,769 218,519 0 0 Scottsville Library 2,436,018 0 0 0 0 0 0 322,308 276,296 1,405,000 432,414 Total Loc. Govt. Deft. Costs $76,752,342 Inflated Cost Estimates -- Schools Division CIP/CNA Projects Item Elementary Site Land Acq. Henley Addition/Renovation Murray High School Renovations Cale Addition Elementary#17 ADA Structural Changes Monticello High School Audit. Monticello HS Aux. Gym. WAHS Audit. Moveable Wall Bldg. Svcs. Office/Warehouse Additional High School Capacity WAHS Window Replacement Wide Area Network Upgrade Schools Maint./Rept. -- Financed Veh. Maim. Fac. - Emerg. Gen. Jouett-Greer Site Reconfig. Red Hill Elem. - Add./Renov. Scottsville Add./Renovation Gym. HVAC/Light Replacement Greer Elem. School Renov. Henley Aux. PE/Meeting Space Elementary #18 Albemarle HS Add./Renovation Additional Elem. Capacity Total Schools Division Costs Attachment A Table A-4 (Cont.) Total Cost FY O6 FY 07 FY O8 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 $2,025,000 25,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 149,000 149,000 2,863,000 2,863,000 15,600,000 950,000 14,000,000 650,000 145,000 50,000 15,000 20,000 20,000 40,000 5,531,000 800,000 4,731,000 11999,000 1,999,000 390,000 390,000 3,984,000 800,000 3,184,000 9,756,000 1,000,000 8,756,000 420,000 420,000 1,122,000 1,122,000 22,151,000 3,423,000 3,301,000 4,904,000 1,639,000 1,466,000 1,672,000 720,000 1,501,000 1,750,000 1,775,000 165,000 165,000 675,000 200,000 475,000 3,659,000 400,000 3,259,000 2,646,000 451,000 2,195,000 3,179,000 198,000 1,533,000 1,448,000 5,533,000 600,000 4,933,000 870,000 200,000 670,000 11500,000 1,500,000 10,263,000 700,000 9,563,000 4,800,000 300,000 4,500,000 $100,425,000 Attachment A Table A-4 (Cont.) Deflated Cost Estimates -- Schools Division CIP/CNA Projects Item Total Cost FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 Elementary Site Land Acq. $1,620,833 0 0 0 0 20,833 1,600,000 0 0 0 0 Henley Addition/Renovation 1,000,000 1,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Murray High School Renovations 149,000 149,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cale Addition 2,726,667 0 2,726,667 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Elementary#17 12,010,712 0 0 0 0 0 760,000 10,769,231 481,481 0 0 ADA Structural Changes 133,192 50,000 14,286 18,182 17,391 33,333 0 0 0 0 0 Monticello High School Audit. 5,305,714 800,000 4,505,714 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Monticello HS Aux. Gym. 1,999,000 1,999,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WAHS Audit. Moveable Wall 371,429 0 371,429 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cale Addition 3,495,968 0 0 727,273 2,768,696 0 0 0 0 0 0 Additional High School Capacity 7,255,157 0 0 0 0 0 0 769,231 6,485,926 0 0 WAHS Window Replacement 381,818 0 0 381,818 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wide Area Network Upgrade 1,020,000 0 0 1,020,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Schools Maint./Rept.--Financed 19,193,031 3,423,000 3,143,810 4,458,182 1,425,217 1,221,667 1,337,600 553,846 1,111,852 1,250,000 1,267,857 Veh. Maint. Fac. -- Emerg. Gen. 165,000 165,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jouett-Greer Site Reconfig. 652,381 200,000 452,381 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Red Hill Elem. -- Add./Renov. 3,063,659 0 0 0 347,826 2,715,833 0 0 0 0 0 Scottsville Add./Renovation 2,221,341 0 0 0 392,174 1,829,167 0 0 0 0 0 Gym. HVAC/Light Replacement 2,608,074 0 0 0 172,174 1,277,500 1,158,400 0 0 0 0 Greer Elem. School Renov. 4,446,400 0 0 0 0 500,000 3,946,400 0 0 0 0 Henley Aux PE/Meeting Space 702,667 0 0 0 0 166,667 536,000 0 0 0 0 Elementary#18 1,071,429 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,071,429 Albemarle HS Add./Renovation 8,952,016 0 0 636,364 8,315,652 0 0 0 0 0 0 Additional Elem. Capacity 3,436,508 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 222,222 3,214,286 0 Total Schools Div. Dell. Costs $83,981,995 Grand Total of Deflated Costs $160,734,337 Attachment A Table A-4 (Cont.) Note: Albemarle County assumes a non -compounded inflation rate of 5% per annum for CIP/CNA/Strategic Plan infrastructure costs. Deflated costs are in 2006 dollars. Source: Derived from the Albemarle County FY 06/07 Adopted Budget, pp. 202 & 203, and Conversations with Brenda Neitz, Budget Analyst. Attachment A Table A-5 Assumed Twenty Year Annual Increase (%) in Albemarle County Revenue Streams, per Dwelling Unit $4,268.99 Total Current Rev. $ Amount per DU 4.47% Total Weighted Assumed Ann. Rate of Growth SFD 20 Yr. Wt. Avg. Current $ % of Assumed Assumed Amt. Per Tot. Curr. $ Annual Ann. Inc. Dwell. Unit Amt. Per DU Revenue Stream Increase 2.12% $1,811.87 42.44% Residential Real Property Tax 5.00% 0.82% 530.48 12.43% Residential Personal Property Tax 6.58% 0.07% 129.75 3.04% Cons. Utility Tax -- Residential 2.22% 0.00% 4.99 0.12% Ut. Company Licenses 3.00% (a) 0.04% 52.87 1.24% Motor Vehicle Licenses 3.00% (a) 0.01% 33.27 0.78% Permits & Fees 1.78% 0.01% 8.37 0.20% Fines & Forfeitures 3.00% 0.05% 26.19 0.61% Charges for Services 8.86% 0.11% 165.19 3.87% State Aid 2.74% 0.15% 105.69 2.48% Categorical Aid -- Federal 5.96% 0.02% 9.55 0.22% Hotel/Motel/Room Tax 7.30% 0.06% 26.87 0.63% Delinquent RE/Penalties 9.04% 0.91% 1,288.79 30.19% State Aid to Schools 3.00% (a) 0.11% 75.12 1.76% Meals Tax 6.46% $4,268.99 Total Current Rev. $ Amount per DU 4.47% Total Weighted Assumed Ann. Rate of Growth SFA/TH 20 Yr. Wt. Avg. Current $ % of Assumed Assumed Amt. Per Tot. Curr. $ Annual Ann. Inc. Dwell. Unit Amt. Per DU Revenue Stream Increase 2.10% $1,334.74 42.09% Residential Real Property Tax 5.00% 0.95% 457.81 14.44% Residential Personal Property Tax 6.58% 0.09% 129.75 4.09% Cons. Utility Tax -- Residential 2.22% 0.00% 4.31 0.14% Ut. Company Licenses 3.00% (a) 0.04% 45.62 1.44% Motor Vehicle Licenses 3.00% (a) 0.02% 28.71 0.91% Permits & Fees 1.78% 0.01% 7.22 0.23% Fines & Forfeitures 3.00% 0.06% 22.60 0.71% Charges for Services 8.86% 0.12% 142.56 4.50% State Aid 2.74% 0.17% 91.21 2.88% Categorical Aid -- Federal 5.96% 0.02% 8.24 0.26% Hotel/Motel/Room Tax 7.30% 0.07% 23.19 0.73% Delinquent RE/Penalties 9.04% 0.77% 810.24 25.55% State Aid to Schools 3.00% (a) Attachment A Table A-5 (Cont.) $3,171.04 Total Current Rev. $ Amount per DU 4.56% Total Weighted Assumed Ann. Rate of Growth SFA/TH 20 Yr. Wt. Avg. Current $ % of Assumed Assumed Amt. Per Tot. Curr. $ Annual Ann. Inc. Dwell. Unit Amt. Per DU Revenue Stream Increase 0.13% 64.83 2.04% Meals Tax 6.46% $3,171.04 Total Current Rev. $ Amount per DU 4.56% Total Weighted Assumed Ann. Rate of Growth $2,415.74 Total Current Rev. $ Amount per DU 4.52% Total Weighted Assumed Ann. Rate of Growth MF 20 Yr. Wt. Avg. Wt. Avg. Current $ % of Assumed Assumed Amt. Per Assumed Amt. Per Tot. Curr. $ Ann. Inc. Annual Amt. Per DU Ann. Inc. Dwell. Unit Amt. Per DU Revenue Stream Increase Residential Real Property Tax 1.80% $869.70 36.00% Residential Real Property Tax 5.00% 6.58% 1.08% 394.83 16.34% Residential Personal Property Tax 6.58% 0.01% 0.12% 129.75 5.37% Cons. Utility Tax -- Residential 2.22% 52.87 0.00% 3.72 0.15% Ut. Company Licenses 3.00% (a) 0.05% 39.35 1.63% Motor Vehicle Licenses 3.00% (a) 0.02% 24.76 1.02% Permits & Fees 1.78% 0.01% 6.23 0.26% Fines & Forfeitures 3.00% 0.07% 19.49 0.81% Charges for Services 8.86% 0.14% 122.95 5.09% State Aid 2.74% 0.19% 78.66 3.26% Categorical Aid -- Federal 5.96% 0.02% 7.11 0.29% Hotel/Motel/Room Tax 7.30% 0.07% 20.00 0.83% Delinquent RE/Penalties 9.04% 0.80% 643.28 26.63% State Aid to Schools 3.00% (a) 0.15% 55.91 2.31% Meals Tax 6.46% $2,415.74 Total Current Rev. $ Amount per DU 4.52% Total Weighted Assumed Ann. Rate of Growth MH 20 Yr. Wt. Avg. Current $ % of Assumed Assumed Amt. Per Tot. Curr. $ Annual Ann. Inc. Dwell. Unit Amt. Per DU Revenue Stream Increase 0.94% $561.68 18.79% Residential Real Property Tax 5.00% 1.17% 530.48 17.75% Residential Personal Property Tax 6.58% 0.10% 129.75 4.34% Cons. Utility Tax -- Residential 2.22% 0.01% 4.99 0.17% Ut. Company Licenses 3.00% (a) 0.05% 52.87 1.77% Motor Vehicle Licenses 3.00% (a) Attachment A Table A-5 (Cont.) $2,989.12 Total Current Rev. $ Amount per DU 4.26% Total Weighted Assumed Ann. Rate of Growth Notes: Twenty year assumed annual rates of increase are extrapolated from available projections for the County's current five year financial forecast. (a) No projection exists for growth in this revenue stream in the current financial forecasting model; the author of this table assumes that the revenue per dwelling unit will increase with his expected annual rate of change in the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI -U). Source: Non -footnoted items are derived from e-mail correspondance with Laura Vinzant, Senior Budget Analyst, Febrary 16, 2007. MH 20 Yr. Wt. Avg. Current $ % of Assumed Assumed Amt. Per Tot. Curr. $ Annual Ann. Inc. Dwell. Unit Amt. Per DU Revenue Stream Increase 0.02% 33.27 1.11% Permits & Fees 1.78% 0.01% 8.37 0.28% Fines & Forfeitures 3.00% 0.08% 26.19 0.88% Charges for Services 8.86% 0.15% 165.19 5.53% State Aid 2.74% 0.21% 105.69 3.54% Categorical Aid -- Federal 5.96% 0.02% 9.55 0.32% Hotel/Motel/Room Tax 7.30% 0.08% 26.87 0.90% Delinquent RE/Penalties 9.04% 1.26% 1,259.10 42.12% State Aid to Schools 3.00% (a) 0.16% 75.12 2.51% Meals Tax 6.46% $2,989.12 Total Current Rev. $ Amount per DU 4.26% Total Weighted Assumed Ann. Rate of Growth Notes: Twenty year assumed annual rates of increase are extrapolated from available projections for the County's current five year financial forecast. (a) No projection exists for growth in this revenue stream in the current financial forecasting model; the author of this table assumes that the revenue per dwelling unit will increase with his expected annual rate of change in the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI -U). Source: Non -footnoted items are derived from e-mail correspondance with Laura Vinzant, Senior Budget Analyst, Febrary 16, 2007.