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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1994-04-11 TEN TAT I V E 5:30 P.M. April 11, 1994 Room 5/6, County Office Building 1) Call to Order. 2) JOINT MEETING WITH SCHOOL BOARD: a) Discussion: School Facility Long Range Planning Committee Report. b) Other Matters not Listed on the Agenda. 3) Adjourn. COUNTY OF ALBEMARLE MEMORANDUM Robert W. Tucker, Jr., of Supervisors ;/ ~ County Executive ~( .-. TO: FROM: DATE: Albemarle County Board April 6, 1994 RE: Joint Board of supervisors/school Board Meeting Attached are data from the Long Range Planning Committee regarding revised enrollment figures from the Center for Public Service. This additional information along with the School's long range preliminary report will be discussed with the Board of Supervisors and the School Board at our Joint Meeting on April 11th at 5:30 p.m. in Room 5/6 of the County Office Building. Should you have any questions concerning this matter, please do not hesitate to contact me. RWT,Jr/dbm 94.054 Attachment I" u..C,,:~,~"f ALBEMARLE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS Office of the Superintendent 401 McIntire Road Charlottesville, Virginia 22901-4596 To: Robert W. Tucker, Jr., County Executive /ifI~ Robert W. Paskel, Superintendent _ /.-tA ! Long Range Planning Committe~ - From: Date: April 1, 1994 Re: Material for April 11, 1994 Joint Board Meeting On April 11, 1994, the Long Range Planning Committee will discuss with the Board of Supervisors and School Board its preliminary report regarding enrollments, school capacities, and recommendations regarding northern area elementary school and future high school enrollment accommodations. A copy of the preliminary report has already been forwarded to the boards for review in preparation for this meeting. a. Enrollment Data Last week, revised enrollment figures from the Center for Public Service were received by the school division and are attached for review by yourselves and members of the boards (see attachment one.) These new enrollment projections differ dramatically from those which the Center for Public Service provided in December, 1993 and which were discussed with the boards at the January 5, 1994 joint board meeting. The attached analysis (attachment two), displays that, between December and March, the overall Center for Public Service projections differ by 546 students in 1994 and by 1736 students by the year 2003. Attachment three displays the impact of these new projections on high school enrollments. You may recall that in January, the Committee recommended taking the most conservative approach to enrollment projections for the next ten year period. The new projections from the Center for Public Services indicate an even more conservative forecast for enrollments in the County. "We Expect Success" There are several reasons for this difference in the CPS projections. The primary reason is that in December, the CPS model was run for Albemarle County without the state-wide constraints of an overall state enrollment trend. The new figures are designed to be accurate at the state level and thus include trends for such large systems as Fairfax County and such small systems as Highland County. In applying this state-wide trend data, Albemarle County's projections may not be accurate since the model does not consider local growth trends. The County's model is designed from examining each school attendance area, applying various growth trends, and then determining the overall division projection. Attachment four indicates the history of the County's projections, those of the Center for Public Service and actual enrollments since CPS began their projections for the State in 1991. The Committee believes that its projections, which were presented in January and which are shown in attachment five, still provide the most accurate forecast of future enrollment trends for Albemarle County. b. Recommendations: The Committee's assumptions, outlined on page1.of the preliminary report, are based on the premise that new buildings should be avoi~d if existing space can accommodate projected enrollments. In the northern area, enrollments can be accommodated in existing schools if a redistricting of students takes place and the School Board approves of splitting elementary schools into two middle schools. Avoiding this redistricting will have the impact of necessitating the renovation of W oodbrook Elementary School (approximate cost $2.2 million) to accommodate the anticipated growth in Forest Lakes South and will also result in underutilization of Greer and Agnor-Hurt elementary schools. With regard to high school options, the Committee has provided three options for accommodating high school growth. Two of these options would entail the renovation of Walton Middle School to accommodate both middle and high school students. The third option, that of building a new high school facility, could take place at either the Walton site, currently owned by the County, or on another site (anticipated additional cost of $1.5 million.) If the new high school were built on the Walton site or in the renovation of Walton, an anticipated savings of $364,000 annually in transportation costs would result. The Committee is proposing that it evaluate various land sites according to the County's community facilities plan and th~t a recommendation on the location of the new high school be presented to the boards in the near future. The Committee looks forward to discussing its proposals with the joint boards on April 11 and will be happy to provide further information at your request. CAH/ ac m-940401 attachments ...*... *~* ...!!!!... *...* Dr. Hastings CENTER FOR PUBLIC SERVICE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA 918 EJl1Illt:t Street Norrh, Suire 300 Charlorrcwillc. VA :>.:>.903-4832 PHONI.:: 804 ,)8:>.- ')'):>.:>. lAX: 80-1 98:>.-)'):>.-! Tnn: 80498:>.--IIL\I( March 14, 1994 MR. ROBERT W. PASKEL SUPERINTENDENT ALBEMARLE SCHOOLS 401 MCINTIRE RD. CHARLOTrESVILLE, VA 22902 DEAR MR. PASKEL: Around this time last year the Center for Public Service sent you detailed enrollment projections for your school division. As a result of this distribution we received several favorable comments about the projections, as well as some important corrections to the historical information on which the projections are based. At this time we are pleased to be able to send you the most recent set of educational projections for your division. This is the fifth consecutive year the Center for Public Service has worked with the Department of Education and the State Council for Higher Education in Virginia to make projections of September 30 (fall) membership, high school graduates, and March 31 average daily membership for each of the Commonwealth's school divisions. For the last three years a summary of the projections has been published in Projections of Educational Statistics and distributed by DOE to the divisional superintendents. This is the second year the Center has distributed the worksheets which form the basis for the divisional projections. The material being sent you is not confidential or restricted in any way; we hope you will share it with other officials in your division, your local school boards, and anyone else you might choose. There are several reasons for sending the worksheets in advance of the pu blication. For one, the worksheets contain significantly more informatiqn than is possible to provide in the publication. For example, the fall membership projection worksheet includes projections by grade, whereas the publication contains only the total fall membership projection. Second, the worksheet contains all the historical information on which the projections are based. Third, the worksheets are completed several months before the publication; distribution of the worksheets allows you to see the new numbers earlier. Finally, it is our hope that you will be able to review your division's historical information, and let us know if there are any inaccuracies. While it is beyond the scope of this letter to explain the projections in complete detail, I did want to give you some assistance in navigating the worksheets. There are two worksheets: the first contains the fall membership projections by grade (on two legal size pages); the second (on one letter size page) contains projections of high school graduates and average daily membership. ATTACHMENT ONE FALL .\1EMBERSIiIP PROJECTIONS WORKSHEETS (TWO PAGES, LEGAL SIZE) The fall membership projections are constructed using a grade-progression ratio methodology. A grade-progression ratio is simply the ratio of the number of students enrolled in a panicular grade, compared to the number enrolled in the preceding year in the preceding grade. Page one Columns A & B: show births by year. Data in bold face are historical. Our file contains historical birth data for 1975-1992 and projections for 1993-2008. Column C: shows the school year corresponding to the birth year. For example, children born in 1975 entered school five years later in the 1980-81 school year. Columns D to T, rows 4 to 17: contain grade-by-grade historical fall membership. Please note: if you do nothing else with this material, please check the accuracy of these numbers, particularly the number of ungraded students in columns Q, R, and S. We have found that there is often substantial misreporting of these numbers to DOE. Column U, rows 4 to 17: shows the ratio of ungraded special education students to the grade K-12 membership total, expressed as a percentage. Col umns U and V, rows 19 to 22: show several averages derived from the ungraded student percentages. The average in bold face is the one used to project the number of ungraded students. Columns 0 to T, rows 19 to 3S: contain the fall membership projections, by grade, for school years 1994-95 to 2() 13-14 (these numbers are derived lower down in the worksheet, but are displayed in these columns to bring them together with the historical data). These numbers supersede those issued in our last published report, Projections of Educational Sw(isucs lO 2012, and also supersede the worksheet projections we sent you last year. Columns C to 0, rows 44 to 57: these cells contain grade progression ratios calculated from the historical data. Page two Rows 61 to 67: for each pair of grades, shows various average values based on the historical grade-progression ratios. Rows 70 to 90: for each pair of grades, and for each year in the projection time frame (as referenced in column A [for births to kindergarten I and column B [for atl other pairs of grades]) the projected grade-projection ratio. H IG II S CIIOOL GRADUATES AND A OM. PR OJ ECTlONS WOR KSH EET (ONE PAGE, LETTER SIZE) This worksheet is divided into two sections. Columns W to AD contain the calculations and projections of high school graduates. The second section, in columns AF to AK, contains the calculations and projections of March 31 average daily membership. In the case of school divisions containing more than one locality (e.g., Bedford County and City, Fairfax County and City, Alleghany County and Clifton Forge City, and several others), there will be two sets of ADM calculations and projections, one set for each jurisdiction in the school division. In these few cases the following description is only approximately correct. - I _ High School Graduates section Columns Wand X: show the school year and grade 12 fall membership. Numbers in bold face are historical, other numbers are projections from the fall membership worksheet. Column Y: shows total high school graduates, historical (in bold face) and projected. Columns Z and AA: show regular and summer term graduates separately. However, DOE no longer provides us with this breakout and so we now only project the total number of high school graduates. Column AB, rows 4 to 16: shows the historical percentage of high school graduates to their corresponding 12th grade class. Columns AB to AC, rows 23 to 25: show the calculation of the average percentage of high school graduates to 12th grade membership. The bold face percentage is the one selected for the projections. March 31 Average Daily Membership section Columns AF to AH: show, respectively, the school year, actual and projected total fall membership, and actual and projected March 31 ADM. Column AI: shows March 31 ADM as a percentage of the corresponding year's fall membership. Columns AJ and AK: show several different mathematical averages calculated from column AI. The percentage in bold face is the one selected for the projections. I hope you find this material useful. If you find any inaccuracies in the historical data recorded for your division, please let us know. Should you bring a large, or a recent, error to our attention, we will fe-compute the projections for your division and send you a copy of the new results. If you have questions concerning any aspect of the projections, please contact Laura Sprung at the Center at (804) 982-5584. Sincerely, )Ztt?44c!t? ~~ Michael A. Spar, Ph.if' Research Associate De;'OgraPhiC( 7,Udies dtWIU, /vJP1W/iY Laura Sprung, M.S. Research Assistant Demographic Studies - 3 - .... a> in N N c o a1 ~ ., ci: III c: o o II 0' ci: .,. a> a> ... >- c: ::l o U ~ III E II ~ :;;: I N .... - '" U U '" 0 ;.:; .. ! ! .... '" '" '" '" ;;; .. ~ ;; '" '" 0 > " U .... 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" " " " " " HIGH SCHOOL PROJECTIONS YEAR COUNTY COUNTY CPS NOVEMBER NOVEMBER FEBRUARY 1994 1992 1993 PROJECTION PROJECTION * PROJECTION * 1994 2,947 3,048 2,921 1995 3,055 3,207 3,036 1996 3,218 3,343 3,129 1997 3,375 3,505 3,209 1998 3,559 3,639 3,276 1999 3,633 3,663 3,234 2000 3,631 3,752 3,242 2001 3,586 3,703 3,196 2002 3,684 3,600 3,117 TOTAL RATED CAPACITY OF AHS & WAHS: 3045 TOTAL EFFECTIVE CAPACITY OF AHS & WAHS: 2741 ,~ INCLUDES MURRAY HIGH SCHOOL hipro A TT ACHMENT THREE ALBEMARLE COUNTY SCHOOLS PROJECTED VS. ACTUAL ENROLLMENTS SCHOOL CPS MEAN ALBEMARLE ACTUAL VARIANCE VARIANCE YEAR PROJ ECTION PROJECTION ENROLLMENT CPS ALBEMARLE 1991-92 10462 10571 10188 (274) (383) 1992-93 10627 10514 10436 (191) (78) 1 993-94 10909 10793 10581 (328) (21 2) MEAN VARIANCE (264 ) (224) ATTACHMENT FOUR i ,-:-' I 1 I J W N W <0 A .... .... "A. 0'1 CD I I I A. o ~ I .... .... W al A. .... .... .~ o CD .... .... ""0 A. 0'1 .... .0 CD 0'1 N "'-' ~ o ~ l> , .... o ""cg al ~ .... .... .... 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Ol......-.lO A to o -.l ...... "'A...... "'W(J1AWA"'AA AIO OlCD(J'1"'-l<JlCDtOO WN A..... (Jl 1O............AAAN 0 00""" WUl(J'1CD A CD ..... W ............NA............NW<JlWWANAA ACD(J'1"'l(J'1"'-lA-..I-.ltON.....AOA (J'1"'l(J'1(J'1NWCDN"'-lW A A"'" CD 10 ............. N A..... N W <Jl W WAN A A ACDUl"'-l<Jl"'-lA"'-l"'-ltON......AOA A OlNN......W"'-lO A"'" N.....O-.JOl A TT ACHMENT FIVE ...... 10 to A 10 10 Ul to 10 Ol l> I OJ m "O~ :::ol> 0:::0 '-I mm (")(") -;0 me Oz ~:1 :::0"0 Oe IOJ ~C m(") Zen -;(") en:t o o I en 10 10 -.l 10 10 CD ..... 10 10 10 N a a a N a a ..... N o a N N a a W COUNTY OF ALBEMARLE MEMORANDUM TO: Albemarle County Board ~f Supervisors ------- FROM: Robert W. Tucker, Jr., County Executive DATE: March 25, 1994 RE: School Facility Long Range Planning Report Attached is a copy of the Long Range Planning Committee's report on school facility needs fo~~the future. I had asked Dr. Paskel to supply me with enough copies to share with you since the report will be reviewed with the School Board on Monday, March 28th. There are a couple of areas that you may receive calls on, particularly the high school issue. We are scheduled to have a joint meeting with the School Board on April 11th at 5:30 p.m. which is tentatively scheduled in Room 5/6. At that joint meeting, we will be discussing this planning report, however, I felt .it important that you receive a preliminary copy of this prior to the School Board's discussion of the matter on Monday evening. Should you have any questions concerning this matter, please do not hesitate to contact me. RWT,Jr/dbm 94.049 Attachment