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HomeMy WebLinkAboutZMA201600003 Calculations Zoning Map Amendment 2016-03-31 COUNTY OF ALBEMARLE NO, ihr,r4." MEMORANDUM TO: Elaine Echols, Principal Plaimer FROM: Steven A. Allshouse, Manager of Economic Analysis and Forecasting David Benish„ Acting Director of Planning DATE: March 31, 2016 RE: Fiscal Impact Analysis of ZMA 2015-09 (Spring Hill Village) The Planning Commission requested an analysis of the Spring Hill Village development as approved under ZMA 2013-00017 using the CRIM model. Results of the CRIM analysis could then be compared to the proposed per unit cash proffer amounts recommended by FIAC. Staff used an updated version of the County's Cost Revenue Impact Model (CRIM) to analyze two separate scenarios for the property in question. Please note that the results generated by the CRIM analysis cannot be used for proffer purposes, since CRIM includes consideration of both operating expenses as well as capital expenses: and capital expenses in the model include all items in the County's CIP/CNA, not just capital items that increase capacity(these conditions are not consistivith proffers laws as amended in the State Code in 2013. Also note that the version of CRIM used in this analysis utili=es an average cost approach of analysis, whereas the proffer lmv that will become effective on July 1, 2016 requires essentially a marginal cost approach of analysis. The first scenario involved the maxinnun new development that could take place under existing zoning and assumes all built units are single family detached units,the unit type which generates the greatest impacts on public infrastructure and services. As a result, this scenario creates the greatest theoretical level of impacts permitted under the zoning. The second scenario reflects the concept for the development as illustrated on the approved application plan, which is a total of 90 units consisting of 66 SFD and 24 SFAITH units. The results of these two analyses appear in the attached "Budget Smumary—Existing Zoning" and "Budget Summary—Proposed Zoning" documents, and are summarized below. CRIM -- Current Zoning, Maximum 100 units, (all SFD) In this scenario, staff assumed 100 single family detached residences(SFD's)would be built during the course of the next year. CRIM estimates that, after build-out, the type and level of development that could take place under existing zoning would result in the following net annual fiscal impact: Property Taxes $327,000 Other Revenues 301,000 Total Revenues $628,000 School Expenditures ($881,000) County Govt. Expenditures (272.000) Total Expenditures ($1,153,000) Net Annual Fiscal Impact (8525,000)* Fiscal Impact Per Unit $5,250* For comparison: Cash proffers generated under FIAC $491,800 FIAC per unit amount. SFD $4,918 *NOTE: Please note that the impacts generated from the CRIM model run include factors/inputs into the model that are not consistent with current state law regarding proffers (CRLM runs include non-capacity building CIP/CNA projects and also operating expenses). The CRIM generated amounts (total and per unit) are therefore higher than can be accepted for proffers under state law. Note that any discrepancies between the dollar values in this memorandum and the dollar values in the CRIM printout result from rounding errors in the model. CRIM --Current Zoning, Application Plan Concept (90 units, 66 SFD & 24 SFA/TH) This second scenario is reflective of the approved application plan and an initial site plan that was approved in February, and potentially reflects more accurately the distribution of units by type. Staff assumed, again, that the development would be completed in one year. CRLM estimates that, after build-out, this proposed project would have the net annual fiscal impact shown below. 2 Property Taxes $238.000 Other Revenues 226,000 Total Revenues $464,000 School Expenditures ($610,000) County Govt. Expenditures ($220,000) Total Expenditures ($830,000) Net Annual Fiscal Impact ($366,000)* • Fiscal Impact Per Unit $4,067*A For comparison: Cash proffers generated under FLOC $416,868 FIAC per unit amount, SFLYSFA-TH $4,918/$3,845 *NOTE: The impacts generated from the CRE\I model include factors/inputs into the model that are not consistent with current state law regarding proffers (CREM runs include non- capacity building CW/CNA projects and also operating expenses. The cRat generated amounts (total and per unit) are higher than can be accepted for proffers under state law. ^NOTE: this per unit amount is provided by dividing the net amrual fiscal impact by the total number of units. No differentiating is made regarding unit type. The FIAC approach recognizes the different level of impacts typically generated by residents of different types of units. Note, once again, that any discrepancies between the dollar values here and those shown in the CRIM printout are the result of rounding errors in the model. Summary of Findings: - The CRIM flu's of the two scenarios for Spring Hill Village did not result in a significant difference in the per unit fiscal impact or the total amount of funds potentially contributed to address impacts of the development. Fin-thermore, the additional amounts from the ('RIM rims are likely to be negated by the unlawful inputs still contained in the CRIM Model (operating expenses and non-capacity building CIP/CNA projects). - Based on the results of this analysis of the Spring Hill Village project, staff opinion is that further use of the CREM model to assess ZMA amendment requests to modify existing cash proffer amounts is not useful and will not result in substantially different calculations for impacts and resulting cash proffer amounts than use of the recommended FIAC' cash proffer 3 amounts. - Staff is currently assessing the most recent revisions to the state law regarding proffers, and will be undertaking a more comprehensive reassessment of the County's cash proffer policies and practices in light of the changes in the state code. These efforts will result in a more comprehensive response to the shifts in the ability to use cash proffers as a mechanism to address a project's impact on essential public infrastructure and services. SAA/saa 4 Attachment F Budget Summary--Existing Zoning--100 SFD's Average Cost Model-FY16 Update Average Costs Year=> 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (Values in$000's) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 REVENUES PROP Residential Real $91,022 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 TAXES Nonresidential Real $28,384 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $0 $0 Res Personal Prop $17,432 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ' $0 $0 $0 $0 Nonres Personal Prop $5,811 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Other(Agricultural) $10,273 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Subtotal: Property Taxes $152,921 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 OTHER 1 Public Service Tax $2,717 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 2 Pers Prop Tax-Resid $17,432 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 3 Pers Prop Tax-Nonses $5,811 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 4 Mach&Tools Tax $568 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 5 Sales&Use Tax $14,446 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 6 Cons Util Tax-Resid $5,424 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 7 Cons Util Tax-Nonres $3,616 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 SO $0 8 BPOL Taxes $10,682 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 9 Util Co Licenses $342 $1 $I $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $I 10 Motor Vehicle Licenses $4,059 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 11 Permits&Fees $98 $0 SO $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 12 Fines&Forfeitures $626 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 13 Charges for Services $1,758 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 14 State Aid $23,130 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 15 Categorical Aid-Federal $7,829 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 16 Hotel/Motel Room Tax $1,113 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 17 Delinquent RE/Penalties $4,369 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 18 State Aid to Schools $45,823 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 19 20 ANNUAL REVENUES $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 21 SF Detached $1,028 $5 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ,$0 $0 22 SF Attached/TH $115 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 23 Multifamily $125 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 SO $0 $O $0 $0 24 Mobile Homes $905 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Subtotal: Other Revenues $152,017 $306 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 TOTAL ADDITIONAL ANNUAL REVENUES: $304,938 $633 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 EXPENSES SCHOOLS Operating Costs $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 Staff Costs $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 CF Pay-As-You-Go $0 $0 $0 $0 $0, $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 CF Debt Service $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 SUBTOTAL,SCHOOLS $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 COUNTY GOVT. Operating Costs $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 Staff Costs $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 CF Pay-As-You-Go $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 CF Debt Service $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 SUBTOTAL,COUNTY $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 TOTALADDITIONAL ANNUAL COSTS: $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 NET FISCAL IMPACT Annual $304,938 (5519) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) Cumulative ($519) ($1,043) ($1,567) ($2,092) ($2,616) ($3,140) ($3,664) ($4,188) ($4,712) ($5,236) Attachment F Albemarle Co.,VA 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Cumulative 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Total $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $6,541 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $327 $6,541 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $96 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $913 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 50 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 SO $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $322 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $12 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $213 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 SO $0 $0 $0 . $5 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $33 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $62 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $61 $1,211 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $410 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $39 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $154 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $127 $2,550 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 50 $0 $0 $0 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 $301 $6,023 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 $628 $12,564 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $668 $13,358 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $186 $3,721 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $533 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $881 $17,611 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $227 $4,530 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $234 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33 $666 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $5,430 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $1,152 $23,041 ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($524) ($10,477) ($5,760) ($6,284) ($6,808) ($7,332) ($7,857) ($8,381) ($8,905) ($9,429) ($9,953) ($10,477) Attachment F Budget Summary--Proposed Zoning--24 SFD's;66 TH'sAverageCostModel-FYl6Update Average Costs Year=> I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (Values in SOON) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 REVENUES PROP Residential Real $91,022 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 TAXES Nonresidential Real $28,384 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Res Personal Prop $17,432 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Nonres Personal Prop $5,811 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Other(Agricultural) $10,273 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Subtotal: Property Taxes $152,921 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 OTHER I Public Service Tax $2,717 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 2 Pers Prop Tax-Resid $17,432 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 3 Pers Prop Tax-Nonres $5,811 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 4 Mach&Tools Tax $568 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 5 Sales&Use Tax $14,446 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 6 Cons Util Tax-Resid $5,424 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 7 Cons UGI Tax-Nonres $3,616 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 8 BPOL Taxes $10,682 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 9 Util Co Licenses $342 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 10 Motor Vehicle Licenses $4,059 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 11 Permits&Fees $98 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 12 Fines&Forfeitures $626 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 13 Charges for Services $1,758 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 14 State Aid $23,130 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 15 Categorical Aid-Federal $7,829 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 16 Hotel/Motel Room Tax $1,113 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 17 Delinquent RE/Penalties $4,369 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 18 State Aid to Schools $45,823 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 19 20 ANNUAL REVENUES $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 21 SF Detached $1,028 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 22 SF Attached/TH $115 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 23 Multifamily $125 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 24 Mobile Homes $903 SO $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Subtotal: Other Revenues $152,017 $229 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 TOTAL ADDITIONAL ANNUAL REVENUES: $304,938 $467 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 EXPENSES SCHOOLS Operating Costs $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 Staff Costs $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 CF Pay-As-You-Go $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 CF Debt Service $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 SUBTOTAL,SCHOOLS $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 COUNTY GOVT. Operating Costs $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 Staff Costs $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 CF Pay-As-You-Go $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 CF Debt Service $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 SUBTOTAL,COUNTY $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 TOTAL ADDITIONAL ANNUAL COSTS: $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 NET FISCAL IMPACT Annual $304,938 ($363) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) Cumulative ($363) ($730) ($1,096) ($1,463) ($1,830) ($2,196) ($2,563) ($2,929) ($3,296) ($3,662) Attachment F Albermarle Co.,VA 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Cumulative 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Total $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $4,752 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $238 $4,752 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $78 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $37 $741 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $290 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $10 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $173 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $27 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $50 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $49 $983 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $17 $333 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $32 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $125 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $83 $1,670 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 $226 $4,517 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 $463 $9,269 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $471 $9,414 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $121 $2,422 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $354 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $610 $12,190 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $184 $3,677 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $190 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $27 $540 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $220 $4,407 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $830 $16,597 ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($367) ($7,328) ($4,029) ($4,395) ($4,762) ($5,129) ($5,495) ($5,862) ($6,228) ($6,595) ($6,961) ($7,328)